OBAMA FOR VICE PRESIDENT?

I posted last Sunday about the Jeremiah Wright  story and seemed to touch a nerve. I had more comments than any other post in the history of this blog (launched in 2002). This was a great example of what I love about social media -- blogs, Facebook, MySpace, Twitter, etc. We're now connected in a more powerful way to people we want to be connected to but sometimes can't be because of distance, life, etc.  High school friends, relatives, colleagues and random web surfers stopped by and joined the discussion. Thank you all. I love having you in my digital living room to talk politics.

In that spirit, I thought I'd unload some of my thoughts on where we are with this election.

The democrats have a train wreck on their hands. We're all hoping for resolution after Pennsylvania. But Pennsylvania will go convincingly to Hillary, giving her another huge state win and providing her more reason not to quit. The latest Public Policy Polling poll shows Hillary with a 26 point lead while others show Hillary with a 12-19 point lead. The key stat from most of the PA polls is Hillary's HUGE lead among women. In the PPP poll, she has a 46 point margin over Obama with female voters (66-22). Women are firmly in Hillary's camp and I don't expect these numbers to change over the next month of campaigning.

The candidates are then on to North Carolina. The state is firmly in Barack's camp, with a large (22%) black population. Then off to Indiana and other small states. Net-net ... neither candidate will reach the magic delegate number. And I don't see a scenario in which either candidate will back down. Obama will have the lead. And Clinton will be energized by winning all the large states.

Now the bigger issue is the lack of a party elder to broker a deal. Howard Dean has no moral authority or muscle to get a deal done. The most effective democratic leader is married to one of the candidates. And the other is off saving the environment. Hillary has lived for this moment. And she's not going to let a small delegate deficit get in the way.

Late last year, I thought it was at least plausible, though highly unlikely, that Barack would eventually take the #2 spot in exchange for the #1 spot in 8 years. But now that he's in the lead and some of the super delegates are committing to him (Gov. Richardson this week), this is even less likely. And for Hillary, creating turmoil actually helps her out. How? She's most likely not getting the nonimation without an amazing showing among super delegates at the convention. So her best bet to become president is to trash Barack and bloody him  so that he loses to McCain. And then McCain loses to Hillary in 2012.

The democrat nominating process is now ugly. And it's only getting uglier. I think the best bet right now would be for Hillary to drop out ASAP -- BEFORE PENNSYLVANIA -- and support Obama. By bowing out now, gracefully, she would take the high road and solidify her position as a party leader and stateswoman. She would let Obama spend the next month raising money and looking presidential (like McCain is doing now!). And if she really cares about changing the country, maybe she should consider becoming Obama's #2.

Comments

[Leslie Bocskor]

Another excellent post. I would ask, with the body of the post seemingly exploring Hillary's dropping out, was curious about the title.

Also, I would add one more concern as it regards the continuation of the democratic primary. FL and MI. Governor Christ of FL has either through foresight or luck maneuvered the Democratic party in FL and nationally into a very curious spot. if the delegates from these states do not get seated, it presents a real challenge for the party, both at the convention as it regards nomination of a candidate, and in the general election. I have to imagine that many of the FL Democrats will be a bit, shall we say "concerned" that their party was able to dismiss their participation in such an historic primary, especially with the sting of the 2000 election and consequent selection still quite fresh.
So, with that being the case, if the race does not end soon, with the FL and MI issues heating up, we do see the possible formation of a storm for the Democrats.

So, the real issue you bring up is so critical. If only we could say, with confidence. that I think Hillary Clinton's primary priority is the nation, this would not seem much of an issue.

We will see.

Leslie

[Frederic Guarino]

HRC should definitely drop out now, before PA, but will she ?

BTW if you haven't already, read http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0308/9149.html

An interesting development to come could be John Edwards throwing his support behind Obama, before the PA primary.

That would put the biggest number of former presidential candidates behind Obama, helping him with the "experience" factor.

I too am afraid that the Clinton trench warfare will again be unleashed, especially after good old Bill continues his shtick (see http://apnews.myway.com/article/20080322/D8VIBPN00.html)

It's shocking but not unexpected that Bill and Hill would choose to permanently harm a candidate like Obama rather than do what's right for the party. It's a testament that dynastic politics is an aberration in US politics and should be discouraged by voters.

Democrats throwing away their best chance at the White House after 2 terms of GWB is eerily similar to how the French Socialists lost 3 presidential elections in a row, including the last one- divisiveness, divisiveness and more divisiveness -)

You point to the sad fact that no party elder of consequence is able to put the fire out, can/should Al Gore step off his pedestal and get this under control ?

[jfew]

My prediction: more superdelegates like Richardson come out in favor of Obama and the rest will follow. It'll eventually prove to be the will of the people since Obama's pledged delegates and popular vote leads seem pretty safe, regardless of what happens in Pennsylvania. Expect the Democrats to reform the nomination process so that this never happens again.

If the Michigan and Florida delegates somehow get seated at the convention as elected in January that will turn everything upside down, but it would be the death of the party. As hungry as the Clintons are to win elections, I doubt they want their legacy to be helping assure the "permanent Republican majority" that Karl Rove has promised by fragmenting the left into unelectable splinter parties.

[Leslie Bocskor]

As much as it appears that it would be best for the party to be behind one candidate here, when you look at the numbers, that do have flaws of course (MI and FL primary issues, etc...), it is easy to see why the Clinton campaign is still in the game: http://tinyurl.com/2hbf4a .

Lest it be forgotten, the process may be more important in fact than the outcome.

The other post you had on how Obama could use more vetting, etc... rings true.

Leslie